2010: When Virtual and Augmented Worlds Collide?

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Erick Schonfeld at TechCrunch has an interesting blog post comparing Augmented Reality and Virtual Reality, based primarily on a Google Trends plot of both search terms in Google.

His conclusions:

  • Augmented Reality has now over taken Virtual Reality, and
  • "You can take your virtual reality and get lost on Second Life. I'll take augmented reality any day. It's just more real."

As Mark Kingdon's New Year post says though virtual worlds such as Second Life are likely to become even more real (Second Life HD - SLHD Mark calls it), and anyway:

  • The current killer apps for virtual worlds and augmented reality are different - the VW strength is in training and learning, collaboration and whole building and data visualisation, AR is currently in navigation and interpretation
  • Increasingly the two will blur - we will have more AR with VW, and be able to our VW on as a AR overlay on real-life (see Halting State by Charles Stross)

So in most respects while the "tension" between AR and VW is interesting to me it is ultimately pointless as the future involves both.

But then I looked at Erick's graph again. He plotted virtual reality against AR - which apart from being a poetic balance is actually the wrong thing. All my (and most other people's talk) is about virtual worlds. VR is very much the 70s/80s term - no wonder its declining on his graph - and the VW "bubble" was in 2006 well after his graph shows VR declining.

So I did my own Google Trends - plotting AR against not only VR but also "virtual worlds" - having checked of course that my AR/VR graph was the same as his. The result:

googletrends_ar_vr_vw.png

That looks a truer picture. VW steading growing with something of a step change around 2006 and then growing steady til it was overhualed bythe AR hype of mid 2009, but then actually taking AR back over (just) at the end of 2009!.

As ever lies, damn lies and statistics!

As I said earlier this isn't to say that VW is better than AR or more important - they are both going to be important and vital to the future - all we need to know is which to use for which application, and how to get them to work together.


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2 Comments

Hi David,

Spot on post. I do hope we get "SL HD" soon btw, because it's way past due.

Steph

As I mentioned with regard to the Techcrunch piece, these two technologies are actually two sides of the same coin – one brings the interaction into the 3D virtual world, the other bring the virtual objects into the “real” world (kinda) – and with the emerging interactive surface powered tablets the lines will become even more blurred through the coming years. Especially as we (humans) become more and more comfortable “directly manipulating 3D virtual objects” with these technologies, making interactions like this -> http://www.yout...h?v=vjVG6uh8P80 (mashing up the real & virtual via interactive direct manipulation devices) not so rare in the not too distant future … regardless of the screen size (looking glass)

Cheers !
Rich
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This page contains a single entry by David published on January 7, 2010 8:57 AM.

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